Monday, December 04, 2006

Poll: Edwards, Obama Have Best Combination Of Name Recognition, Net Favorability Among Prospective 2008 Democratic Presidential Candidates

A collection of poll data from Rasmussen Reports suggests that among prospective Democratic candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination, the party's rising star, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, have the best combination of name recognition and net favorability rating.

Rasmussen asked prospective Democratic primary voters whether they were familiar with nine would-be 2008 presidential candidates, and whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of that candidate.

Only three of the nine -- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), Obama and Edwards -- had "net favorablity" ratings, meaning that their the percentage of those surveyed with a favorable opinion of them was greater than the percentage that had an unfavorable opinion of them. (A similar review of prospective GOP candidates found only three of seven with net favorability ratings.)

Obama had a net favorability rating of +17, best among any prospective candidate. Among those surveyed, 75 percent had an opinion of Obama (46 percent favorable, 29 percent unfavorable). Should Obama run -- he hasn't yet decided -- the trick will be continuing to have a large net favorability rating, even as more voters become familiar with his policies.

Edwards has a +10 net favorability rating. Among those surveyed, 86 percent had an opinion of Edwards (48 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable). In other words, Edwards has excellent name recognition, and room to improve his favorable ratings.

Clinton had a net favorability of +5 percent. But because of her outstanding 99 percent name recognition (52 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable), she may be hard-pressed to change people's opinions of her -- including her very high unfavorable rating.

Similarly, 95 percent of those surveyed recognized the name of former Vice President Al Gore (47 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable). He, too, suffers from the combination of high name recognition and high unfavorable rating.

Other prospective candidates -- Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joe Biden of Delaware, Govs. Tom Vilsack of Iowa and Bill Richardson of New Mexico, and Gen. Wesley Clark -- each had net unfavorability ratings. With the exception of Clark, each had less name recognition than Obama. That would suggest each faces an uphill climb to win the nomination.

24 Comments:

Anonymous skipos said...

Which should factor into our descision to nominate them

I like Gore, but damn, it is pretty obvious that it would be extrememly difficult for him to win the general election with how many people have already decided they won't vote for him.

3:01 PM  
Anonymous rainy said...

I think things are so different and that Gore will speak out as a real leader that he will turn heads. Maybe this poll is a sham and that the right is really scared of these two. They are starting now to discredit them. They will work hard to discredit any of our pics but these two will be the toughest to beat so it begins.

3:01 PM  
Anonymous skipos said...

I know it is common for DUers to diregard polls when they don't like the results but Gore, Kerry and Clinton have high unfavorables in EVERY poll I have seen. I may like them as candidates, but the polls clearly indicate they have significant uphill battles that other candidates do not have.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous Deep13 said...

"known" usually equals "unfavorable"

That is why senators with high name recognition have such a hard time in the presidential process. Governors are less known and may define themselves assuming the other side does not beat them to it. Someone from a fly-over state would be the best.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous blm said...

Whoever gets the intense negative GOP scrutiny for a sustained period of time will be the person with the highest negatives - so it doesn't matter what any poll really says now. EVERY Dem will be going through that gauntlet. It's how weak and badly WE DEMOCRATS handle the lies is what will determine the outcome.

So far, it appears the GOP and media has a very easy time of attacking Democrats because too many skittish Dems are fearful of the media's ability to lie against our leaders instead of joining efforts to beat them back from their lies.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous AtomicKitten said...

unfortunately once the GOP Wrecking Machine has their way with a Democratic candidate - any candidate - their "favorability rating" will plummet in these kinds of surveys. The only thing that really matters is that their favorability rating exceeds 50%.

3:07 PM  
Anonymous KoKo01 said...

I'm surprised Gore has high unfavorable to favorable ratings. He's very popular on the Left. Obama has high ratings because the Media has pumped him for Entertainment value. Even though some Dems here on DU like him. He's an unknown that might sound good and catchy who might not wear well down the road where experience to clean up Bush's mess will be most important by the time the primaries come around.

Right now folks just want to think about folks that don't have track record but sound good because they speak well about issues.

3:08 PM  
Anonymous yellowcanine said...

Unfortuantely, as good a president as I think Hillary would make, she is too easy to be demonized in the same way Gore was. Ironically Gore is probably "innoculated" against it now, partly because Bush has been such a fuck up and partly because Gore has been standing tall on the issue of Global Warming, which everyone except the true wingnuts recognizes as a problem now.

3:08 PM  
Anonymous Clark2008 said...

I don't discount these findings - but GAG - why do so many people like Edwards? He's such a snake-oil salesman.

3:11 PM  
Anonymous Hippo_Tron said...

I wonder what Nixon's favorability was in 1967

Nixon came back with a much more favorable image despite the fact that it was the same old Nixon. Gore has more than a new image, IMO.

3:11 PM  
Blogger thewaronterrible said...

When you look at Gore's image you must be careful to distinguish his real image from the bogus one created by Repukes contaiminating the MSM, as well as truth and honor, with their spin and lies.

Just like Kerry: Real Image verses Completely Bogus Swiftboat Image.

I think Gore has a fighting chance now that the masses recognize how much more powerful both financially and militarilly the country would have been if only Gore had become president in 2000 instead of Chimp.

People are remorseful that a dim-witted voting clerk had caused Gore to loose 13,000 votes in Florida, and the subsequent Supreme Court theft of the election.

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