Tuesday, November 07, 2006

The Official JABBS Election Prediction: The Senate (Barely) Stays With The Republicans

You've heard the refrain.

The Democrats need to pick up six seats to regain control of the Senate.

What follows is as comprehensive a breakdown of the Senate as you'll find anywhere. I've digested polls, poll averages, and historical voting patterns, in an effort to put together a prediction that hopefully will not only be compelling, but a reflection of what will happen on Election Day.

The short answer: The Democrats will pick up 4 seats. Factoring in Independent wins in Vermont and Connecticut (both seats that will caucus with the Democrats), today's election will leave the Republicans with a 51-47-2 advantage.

I gave the Republicans a slight bump in the polls -- the equivalent of Las Vegas giving the home team in football a 3-point advantage. (Reflecting superior get-out-the-vote efforts in recent elections and better name recognition of incumbents, among other things.) As a result, my predictions are (pardon the pun) more conservative than others. It also means that races within the margin of error are automatically toss-ups -- even if recent polls actually show the Democrat with a slight lead.

Of course, last-minute news items could change things since the most recent polls were taken. The announcement that Saddam Hussein will hang. Military newspaper editorials calling for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's resignation. Even the discovery that a Religious Right leader bedded a gay prostitute and used crystal meth.

And always, there's bad weather to consider.

That said, here's a breakdown, state-by-state, of all the races considered competitive. (R for Republican and D for Democrat. "Inc." denotes the incumbent, when there is one.)

Democratic Holds (2)

Maryland, Cardin (D) 50.5%, Steele (R) 49.5%
New Jersey, Menendez (D-Inc.) 52.5%, Kean (R) 47.5%

Democratic Pick-Ups (3)

Ohio, Brown (D) 56%, DeWine (R-Inc.) 44%
Pennsylvania, Casey Jr. (D) 55%, Santorum (R-Inc.) 45%
Rhode Island, Whitehouse (D) 51.5%, Chafee (R-Inc.) 48.5%

Toss-Ups Leaning Democrat (1)

Montana, Tester (D) 51%, Burns (R-Inc.) 49%

Toss-Ups Leaning Republican (2)

Missouri, McCaskill (D) 48.5%, Talent (R-Inc.) 51.5%
Virginia, Webb (D) 48%, Allen (R-Inc.) 52%

Republican Holds (1)

Tennessee, Ford Jr. (D) 46%, Corker (R) 54%

Republican Pick-Ups (0)

Other (1)

Connecticut, Lamont (D) 41%, Schlessinger (R) 5%, Lieberman (I-Inc.) 54%

15 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

How soon after the election will the dems line up their slip and fall lawyers and take the election results to court? You know it is going to happen. But if the republicans lose, we will take the loss in stride and get ready for the next election as we watch the dems up our taxes and put in place their immoral values.

8:03 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a fair and impartial analysis, anonymous. Just as we've come to expect from your simpleton brain.

Dumbass.

8:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

With friends like these who needs an enemy?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=52803

8:45 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh like the dems havent run to the courts before? Al Gorebal was the first ever to run and cry when it didnt go his way. And I voted for that schmuck.
DUMBASS!

8:46 AM  
Anonymous rob of wilmington, del. said...

The obvious truth is that anonymous hates America and the freedoms we stand for. Anonymous probably lives in fear, and frozen with xenophobia, can only lash out like a baby.

This is a democracy, anonymous. We can vote for who we choose.

If you want to live in a country where everyone supports the president -- or face ridicule, contempt and lies -- go move to Venezuela or North Korea, or maybe Russia.

10:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry but that is a total lie. It was Bush, not Gore, who ran to the federal courts. Gore had every right under Florida law to do what he did.

10:20 AM  
Blogger thewaronterrible said...

I am going to predict the Democrats win by a landside, not only winning 26 seats to storm the House, but also win all 6 or 7 Senate seats to capture a majority in the Senate.
Well, I hope I'm not wrong.
The Repukes in power have given me nothing to believe in about the America or the Democracy I once knew these last six years.
Now I want to believe in something.

As for anonymous forwarding more falsehoods about Democratic activities in past election, why don't you go do your country a favor and move to a Banana Republic or a Communist nation where a Dictator controls the election with no checks and balances in place. That is exactly what you are saying you want?

With 75 percent of the new electronic voting machines reportedly manufactured by Republican-controlled corporations,
you better damn well be prepared if Democrats sense even a sniff of Republican shenanigans in this election, like seen in 2000 and 2004, we will not sit still.
I'm already hearing substantiated reports of official Republican campaign committees participating in a practice across the country known as "Robo-Calling", or programming annoying messages falsly claimed to be from Democratic candidates that have been phoned into people's homes repeatedly in these last few days.
This practice, if proven, is a violation of state and federal voting laws and any Repukes found responsible should be immediately deported, or tossed into a prison where they are forced to repeatedly write by hand entire copies of the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights.
Maybe Bush's Guantamano prison would find a use after all.

12:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

positive sign in Montana

Via Hotline blog:

he MT Sec of State reported Friday that 106K voters cast ballots early or by absentee... well over 1/4 of the votes expected in the state. Of these, Dem internal polls had Jon Tester winning 58-37.

1:31 PM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

Not that any of this necessarily means anything, but the intrade.com futures contracts currently put the Dem chances of taking the house around 83%.

The Dem chances of taking the Senate are much lower, at 30%.

1:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What a liar your are Anonymous. Bush didnt go to the courts first, Gore did. He filed the appeal first. Get your head out of your ass.

8:34 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have a look liar.
http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/08/election.wrap/index.html
If you can read the PDF File.

8:37 AM  
Anonymous trinity said...

Dave G. said...
"Not that any of this necessarily means anything, but the intrade.com futures contracts currently put the Dem chances of taking the house around 83%.


Actually, Dave G., sources like intrade and tradesports DO mean something. When people put their own money on these predictions, they tend to be very careful with their research, and this tends to give accurate results.

http://www.tradesports.com/

3:15 PM  
Anonymous trinity said...

Anonymous said...
"Sorry but that is a total lie. It was Bush, not Gore, who ran to the federal courts. Gore had every right under Florida law to do what he did."


You're mistaken about this, Anonymous. Do some fact checking.

3:18 PM  
Anonymous trinity said...

Anonymous said...
"How soon after the election will the dems line up their slip and fall lawyers and take the election results to court? You know it is going to happen. But if the republicans lose, we will take the loss in stride and get ready for the next election as we watch the dems up our taxes and put in place their immoral values."


BTW, I agree totally with what you said there. When Republicans win, it's because we cheated, but when Democrats win, it's because they earned it. lol Funny how that works.

1:02 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

Actually, Dave G., sources like intrade and tradesports DO mean something.
Yes, I know this Trinity. As it turns out intrade.com was dead-on with the House but wrong on the Senate.

12:01 PM  

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