Thursday, November 30, 2006

Close House Races in 2006 Could Mean 85 GOP Seats Are At Risk For 2008

Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) won two years ago with 51 percent. This year he was barely challenged and piled up 79 percent. Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D-SD) had an even harder time in 2004, winning both a special election in a squeaker and a general election by a slightly larger margin. Herseth was on many lists this year of endangered Democrats. In the end, she cruised to an easy win with 69 percent of the vote.

In an election where Democrats did wvery well, Herseth and Higgins typified many of the trends. No Democratic seats were lost, and a majority of elected Democrats (117 out of 232) were either unopposed or received 70 percent or more of the vote. In fact, in the Northeast, 45 of 68 Democratic winners (and nearly all the incumbents) pulled in 70 percent or more.

In the closest elections, where winners drew 52 percent or less, Republicans won by a 26 to 19 margin. If you wonder why Democrats did not win 40 or more seats, there's the answer. Unlike in 1994, the Republicans managed to win a lot of close elections.

The Republican edge grew as the margins moved up a bit. For seats won with a 53 to 55 percent margin of victory, GOPers posted 16 wins to 15 for Democrats. But from a 56 percent to 59 percent margin of victory, the Republican edge was a stunning 43 victories to eight. If you want to find 85 Republican-held seats to challenge hard in 2008, they are clearly available within this group.

-- From analysis by David Kowalski, in, Nov. 30


Anonymous ginnyinWI said...

the chimp really hurt his party, didn't he.
They thought invading Iraq would be quick, easy and give them a huge political advantage. HA!

3:01 PM  
Anonymous aquart said...

All the Repudiated Party has to do is insist on keeping George.
That should be enough to give us every one of those seats.

3:02 PM  
Anonymous Cosmocat said...

and that BIG thing to come out of this last election that the MSM just won't talk about, while it parrots the "the democrats didn't get a mandate" GOP message is ... The dems, for the first time in a LONG time, now have the majority of governorships, after having a net gain of state legislative seats to pretty much break even in 2004, they had a net gain of over 300 state legislative seats and now have a marked lead in control of state chambers ...

I live in PA ... We have voted for the democratic candidate for president for about two decades now ... We have just got our democratic governor reelected by a WIDE margin ... We just shiite canned the most radical republican senator in the country, and our senior senator is a very moderate republican ...

But, SOMEHOW, our senate is securly locked in GOP hands, and the house just finally, after weeks of recounts, to a one seat edge to the dems ... Our federal congressional districts are disgrace ... Look them up, the western part of the state is just flat disgraceful ...

We need to come back in 2008 and extend the gains in the state house, chip away at the senate ... We have Rendell through 2010 ... SOMEHOW, we need to get our districting worked out properly ...

3:02 PM  

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