Friday, October 13, 2006

For First Time This Year, Democrats Lead In Enough Senate Races To Regain Control

For the first time this year, Democrats hold leads in enough Senate races to take back control of that body.

Here are the five-poll averages from on the races in which Democrats are trying to win seats currently held by Republicans:

-- Pennsylvania: Casey (D) 48%--39% Santorum (R)
-- Maryland: Cardin (D) 47%--40% Steele (R)
-- Montana: Tester (D) 49%--43% Burns (R)
-- Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) 46%--40% Chafee (R)
-- Ohio: Brown (D) 47%--42% DeWine (R)
-- Tennessee: Ford (D) 47%--44% Corker (R)
-- Missouri: McCaskill (D) 46%--44% Talent (R).
-- Virginia: Allen (R) 48%--42% Webb (D)

As you can see, Democrats lead in seven states -- all but Virginia. The party needs a net gain of six seats to regain control of the Senate.

Of course, election day is still nearly a month away, a lifetime in politics.

As Chris Bowers at MyDD notes: "It also is pretty unlikely that Democrats would pull out all of these close races, and in these averages Democrats lead in all of the four closest states. ... Still, it is nice to look at these numbers and see that we are inching forward in almost every close race."


Anonymous Widget said...

Today Rasmussen said on a telephone interview with Sean Hannity, the following -

TN - Dead heat
OH - Dead heat
CT - Leiberman pulling way ahead
VA - George Allen is up 11 points
MO - Jim Talent leads

You remember Rasmussen don't you? Last week they were quoted by this blog as being creditable.

Smile. Big Smile.

12:09 AM  
Anonymous rob of wilmington, del. said...

widget, you continue to suffer from reading comprehension problems.

JABBS clearly says it's a five-poll average, which conceivably is more accurate than any one poll.

Furthermore, the item says Allen is winning. And Lieberman is a Democrat trying to retain his seat, so that doesn't apply to the discussion at hand.

As for the other three, let's see what happens. No one is suggesting the Democrats are running away with anything.

12:16 AM  
Anonymous Angelina's Evil Twin said...

A couple of days ago, Rasmussen was FALSELY ACCUSED of being a "left-wing" poller. MARK LEVIN CULTISTS like Widget were all too happy to agree with that FALSE LABEL.

Now Widget thinks Rasmussen is credible?

Way to FLIP FLOP, Widget.

12:19 AM  
Blogger thewaronterrible said...

It's nice to see Democrats ahead by comfortable margins in most of the states, at least according to the analysis.
I fear that is what we need in order to beat out any Republican schemes to commit Diebold fraud or to wrongfully purge Democrats from the voter rolls.
Here's a question for the Republicans.
If the Republicans are really for a fair and Democratic vote, then why did they quash Dems' attempts over the year to implement a common-sense law necessitating a paper receipt for every vote cast under the new voting machines (from nonetheless predominately Republican-biased manufacturers)?
I think EVERY AMERICAN of either party affiliation would be in favor of such a law.
Every American but Republicans in congress that is.
Here is a situation where the Repukes in congress are not representing the will of the people. Isn't this reason enough to get rid of them?
Of course, the Republicans manufactured an excuse through finding a single representative of the blind to testify that blind people did not want a paper trail for some obtuse reason.
Then the mainstream media ignores the story of would-be huge national appeal so the Republicans can get away with their dirty, anti-American tricks.
And so the duped Americans can elect them again for more of the same.

9:07 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

Folks, widget is an idiot. There's no other explanation. Whatever "fact" fits his worldview is fine by him. This is an average, as stated before.

And polls do vary all over the place, which is why taking an average is a good idea. I'm not ready to say the Dems are gonna take back the Senate -- in fact, I don't think it'll happen -- but it'll definitely be closer than it is currently. 25 days to go, though.

9:43 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

I also need to point out that when I click on Pollster, I see Talent ahead of McCaskill 45-44 in the past 5 polls. Either way, that's a dead heat b/c of margin of error. Just wanted to point it out.

9:46 AM  
Blogger thewaronterrible said...

For another read: Check out realclearpolitics survey of several polls, which has McCaskill ahead by 1.4%
RCP considers MO., NJ, OH, Tenn. and Va as toss-ups, but currently shows Dems ahead in all the states but Virginia.
(Go Webb. Beat that Sen. Macaca!)

I, for one remain optimistic that yes, the Democrats CAN overtake the Senate.

11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep on believing the polls donks. You can bank on them to tell you the truth, just like when someone on this blog said Air America isnt filing chapter 11. Once again libs are wrong. It happens all the time. I dont understand how you all can go through life being wrong all the time. HA HA HA HA HA!!!

11:07 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

Current poll: does anonymous have seven brain cells left or six?

11:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ouch Davey that hurt. Why is it when I make a point with fact and truth you resort to stupidity? Could it be you only have 5 brain cells?

11:41 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

Fact and truth? Point me to the fact and truth up there. Yes, Air America filed for Chapter 11. What's your point? What does that have to do with anything? As usual, nothing, man. Because you make no sense.

11:46 AM  
Anonymous rob of wilmington, del. said...

Of course, dozens of major corporations in America has filed for Chapter 11 protection at one point or another. It doesn't mean much other than AAR needs to restructure its debt.

Truth is, AAR's audience has grown over the past year. Ironically, Fox News Channel's has dropped -- although I doubt any of the MLFers would admit to as much.

11:50 AM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

But Rob, why discuss it? Who cares? Anonymous never stays on topic. We were discussing polls.

The election is 25 days away, and of course, there's a wait-and-see on both sides. Many of the polls, when averaged, look good for Democrats, but of course we still have 3.5 weeks to go, so it's hard to say anything just yet.

I don't see how Burns comes back against Tester, and the same goes for Rick "Man on Dog" Santorum. On the GOP side, as much as Allen has tried to screw up an easy win, I think he still wins by 7-8 points.

That leaves R.I., Mo., Tenn., Ohio, really, and NJ as the ones that matter. Menendez looks a bit better lately in polls, and Brown's been leading DeWine pretty consistently in polls in Ohio. Rhode Island may very well flip to Dem, although Chafee is hardly a bad senator. Ford seems to be gaining ground in Tennessee, but I'd expect Talent holds on in Missouri.

We'll see how it goes, of course, but it's too early to tell. It looks solid, but hard to say.

11:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Republicans feel they have made a grave mistake in that they had appointed an incompetent boob like Bush as president, supported the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and had relied on their Republican leaders to set a moral example for the country.
They now feel threatened by the notion that their wrongness will cause them to lose congress.
Expect more Reid, Air America, Clinton, straw men Democratic arguments, etc.
It's all they've got.

12:43 PM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

The Ford race is the most interesting one, methinks. Santorum's going to lose because he's ultra-conservative in a state that isn't. Burns is going to lose because he's a corrupt idiot. The Chafee race is pretty much between two decent people. The NJ race is between a couple of jerks. But the Tennessee race is truly interesting, as Ford has run a pretty solid campaign, even though it remains an uphill battle.

1:03 PM  
Anonymous Widget said...

Dave Gump, you said,

'Ford has run a pretty solid campaign'.

Last night Harold Ford said that President Ronald Reagan "made us look good to people around the world".

Now those are some solid words.

Smile. Great big smile

2:41 PM  
Anonymous rob of wilmington, del. said...

Widget, are you rooting for Ford?

Unlike the MLFers, Democrats are capable of saying nice things about Republicans. We can usually keep things in context -- Reagan helped give Americans optimism after the Iran hostage crisis and the stagflation of the 1970s, and made a good move helping bail out Chrysler. But he was wrong to do not mention AIDS for six years, let alone provide ample funding for medical research, and his legacy was hurt by the Iran-Contra scandal.

See, some good/some bad. And no wild lunatic fantasies about things Reagan might have been rumored to do, but which were proven false 20 years ago.

Sadly, the MLFers can't do that with regard to Bill Clinton. It's just hatred, lies, and regurgitated myths, rumors and things proven false a decade ago.

3:41 PM  
Anonymous Dave G. said...

An average of the last five polls in Tennessee, Mo., and NJ gives you the following:

Tenn: Ford 47 Corker 44.6
Mo.: McCaskill 46 Talent 43.2
NJ: Menendez 44.8 Kean 39.8

Presented just as information only. The Virginia polls still show Allen with a lead -- average of the last five gives you Allen 47.4, Webb 43.

9:41 AM  

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