Casualty Of The Foley Scandal? New Poll Has Reynolds Trailing
A new SurveyUSA poll finds Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY) trailing Democrat Jack Davis.
The poll, taken for WGRZ-TV Buffalo, has Davis leading 50%-45%. By comparison, a poll released on Sept. 28 had Reynolds leading, 45%-43%.
There are two difference from the previous poll -- the emergence of the scandal surrounding fromer Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) , and the removal of Green Party candidate Christine Murphy from the ballot.
It's unclear how much of the swing to Davis is becasue of Reynolds' role in the House Republican leadership, which critics say knew of Foley's inappropriate behavior for months without taking appropriate action.
A look inside the numbers suggests Reynolds is in trouble:
-- 79% of Democrats support Davis, while just 68% of Republicans support Reynolds
-- 27% of Republicans would crossover to vote for Davis
-- By a 5-3 ratio, Independents support Davis
With 33 days to go before the election, there's plenty of time for volatility in the numbers. But if the Foley scandal continues to haunt the Republican leadership, the odds of a Reynolds victory diminish greatly.