Monday, November 01, 2004

Early Exit Polling Favors Kerry

Exit polls of early voters in Florida and Iowa have provided favorable buzz for Kerry supporters.

In Florida, where 30% of likely voters say they have taken advantage of early voting, Kerry leads 51-43. Nader polls 0.6%.

In Iowa, where 27% of likely voters say they have already voted, Kerry leads 52-43. Nader is at 1.

The conservative spin is that the Democratic Party is trying to front-load the early returns, presumably via some conspiratorial get out the vote effort. While you contemplate that, try to think of the last time you heard Ken Mehlman or Dan Bartlett say something honest about the Democrats.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thank you David. I was anxiously awaiting your insights on the early polling data and spinning.
Most battleground state polls/electoral vote surveys such as and, early this morning anyway, have predicted a win for Kerry.
But then you get the CNN Battleground state prediction yesterday which says Bush will ultimately win by more than 60 electoral votes.
I am going out on a limb with my own prediction here. Looking at the data you presented, the inability of Bush to rise above a 48% standing in the most recent polls (no apparant benefit from Osama tape), and my own perception of anti-Bush/anti-Iraq sentiment sweeping the country, I predict undecideds and new voters to overwhelmingly storm the polls and vote for Kerry. As a result, I predict Kerry to sweep most of the swing states, including Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio, and to win this election.

10:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Kerry wins, will be close (one or two states the most)
If Bush wins, it could be by a wider margin.

Been saying all along that there arent true undecideds out there and this will be about turnout. weather could be a factor. anythign that changes turnout will be a factor.

i just hope someone wins by enough to not have challenges by lawyers.

11:26 AM  

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