We're Safer? Leading Terrorism Experts Disagree with Bush-Cheney Slogan
(Note: The following in a letter being circulated to the media.* Risk Management Solutions is considered a nonpartisan source of information, and its risk modeling is used by government agencies, asset securitization specialists, bond and credit rating agents, insurers and others.)
From: Mark Prindle
Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2004
Subject: briefing request: RMS sees terrorist attack risk increasing in the U.S. and globally [bcc]
Hope you are well.
I was wondering if you might be interested in speaking with a terrorism expert from catastrophe risk modeling firm Risk Management Solutions (RMS) to discuss the company's just-completed 2005 overview of U.S. and global terrorism risk. Developed over the course of several months by RMS and its network of world-renowned terrorism experts, the overview represents the most accurate and up-to-date insight into terrorism risk available anywhere. In the past, this information has been shared with RMS's clients, but not generally released to the media.
U.S. Terrorism Risk: Increased Risk of Attack RMS sees an increased risk of a terrorist macro attack in the U.S. over the next year, with "macro attack" defined as a major terrorist attack requiring considerable resources and intended to provoke a political reaction. While the overall chances of an attack have increased, the expected severity of an attack has decreased; evidence suggests that a successful attack in the U.S. is now more likely to involve the intelligent deployment of smaller conventional weapons such as vehicle bombs, rather than a chemical, biological or nuclear weapon. The increased risk is due to the proliferation of Islamic militants that are motivated and threatening the U.S., and the preparation time that groups have had to plan attacks that could come to maturity in 2005. In addition, 2004 saw a record number of attacks worldwide, a substantial increase in the number of disrupted suspected attack preparations within the U.S., and increased activity in Islamic militant recruitment.
Global Terrorism Risk: Iraq War Generates New Threats RMS warns of a considerable increase in international terrorism threat generated by the Iraq war. Its advisory group cites repeated examples of European operatives visiting Iraq, becoming involved in attacks on US forces and learning guerilla tactics on the front lines before returning to Europe as now-radicalized and experienced terrorist operatives, ready to advance Jihadist causes in France, Germany, the UK and elsewhere. In addition, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is busily creating a new network of terrorist cells throughout Europe, independent of those created by Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda itself continues to recruit new members, including a cell recently arrested in the UK that was comprised of highly educated UK-born Pakistani men who had not been through the Afghanistan training camps but were inspired by the rhetoric and ideology to plan their own attacks -- truly 'second generation' Islamic militant terrorists.
RMS's Global Terrorism Risk Model: Supporting Development of Overseas Terrorism Coverage The information gleaned for this overview also played a significant role in RMS's development of the first-ever Global Terrorism Risk Model. Released in late September, the model is already being used to facilitate a Montpelier Re/OPIC facility that provides terrorism coverage to U.S. businesses investing in developing countries and transition economies.
RMS's Advisory Group
The company's advisory group of world-leading authorities on terrorism includes Jane's Information Group; Dr. Rohan Gunaratna, Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore; Dr. Bruce Hoffman, Director, RAND, Washington, D.C.; Dr. Magnus Ranstorp, Director of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St. Andrews; and Dr. K. Jack Riley, Co-Director, RAND Center for Terrorism Risk Management Policy.
Thank you so much for your time,